Some of this I grabbed from an article I read but there are simply too many actors, too many moving parts, too many dynamics and cross-currents and unknowns. In the span of 4 days were seen a decades worth of geopolitical change. Regardless of what Putin does in the near term however, the effects will carry forward for the rest of our lives.

The four main scenarios in no particular order:

1. Putin seeks a ceasefire (most plausible in my opinion)

Facing an assault that has bogged down, financial ruin, and the possible creation of an organized opposition to his rule, Putin decides that he needs to retrench and focus all of his attention on survival. He offers some sort of compromise—Russia takes direct control of the breakaway “republics” and Ukraine promises not to join NATO for X number of years. Putin then declares victory and tries to consolidate his position at home. The sooner he does this, the more face he saves and the better the outcome across the board.

2. Putin is deposed.

There’s a revolt in the Army. They find a viable figure either somewhere in the government or in the wider oligarchy to be installed as president. The regime changes. This is a scenario Russia has some experience with. Its WAY to early for this and I find it difficult to believe Putin spends even one minute around people that aren't in his inner circle.

3. Putin uses a nuclear weapon

Putin’s escalation of nuclear readiness is a man bluffing with weak cards. But sometimes a guy looking to bluff with nothing but a pair of 4’s becomes so pot-committed that he pushes all-in. It seems unlikely that Putin would order the use of a nuke. Even if he ordered it, the chances of his order being carried out are not 100 percent.

But still.

4. NATO winds up actively engaged with Russian forces.

This might be the worst-case scenario and Biden, the EU, and NATO have been wise to avoid any actions that might lead to a direct exchange of hostilities. But what happens if Putin decides to level Kyiv? At that point, maybe the pressure to create a No Fly Zone in order to stop the mass killing of civilians becomes irresistible. If Ukrainians were brown and/or Muslim and not white and largely Christian, I might not include this as a real possibility.

That said, any attempt to create a No Fly Zone is likely to end with NATO and Russia shooting at each other. Which is probably the most dangerous and destabilizing scenario possible.

At some point Putin will go full Aleppo and the idea that Ukraine might win this will disappear. At that point no one will be in control. It’s possible that his soldiers could refuse orders to flatten Kyiv or deploy thermobaric weapons against the population. It’s also possible that they’d follow his orders and create a humanitarian catastrophe. We don’t know and neither does Putin.


[Post edited by Costa Rica Buff at 02/28/2022 7:35PM]