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BACKinBLACK

Joined: 9/7/04 Posts: 4771
Likes: 1195


I take it the 66% is referring to infection recovery to reach “herd”


Immunity.

The R0 affects that. The faster the spread (higher R0) the more immunity needed in the population.

Measles R0 is around 12-16 meaning it is highly infectious. The percentage to reach herd immunity is then much higher than for many other diseases.

The basic way to calculate the required percentage of immunity is
Herd immunity = 1-1/R0

This is why the claim of a very low R0 is necessary for the “we’re almost at herd immunity crowd”

Using R0 of 2 or 3 would require 50-67%

Using the R0 of 1.25 Would require only 20%.

I still want to know how those who are pushing this narrative can reconcile having an R0 of 1.25 while also claiming 30,000,000 infections in 6 months of community spread. This is like saying a wildfire is very slow spreading but has burned 10% of the US. Seems very contradictory, but cherry pickers cherry pick.
[Post edited by BACKinBLACK at 08/01/2020 11:56AM]

(In response to this post by Buffs4Ever)

Posted: 08/01/2020 at 11:55AM



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Current Thread:
 
  
Memo to Dr Fauci…....don’t be afraid to question your dogma -- A Remote Outpost 07/31/2020 2:07PM
  Serology of 25% in mid May. -- BACKinBLACK 07/31/2020 6:47PM
  *** -- Gateway 07/31/2020 2:23PM
  If a portion of the population has preexisting immunity... -- Banned-for-life 08/01/2020 8:03PM
  Haw a question. When an epidemic or pandemic -- Uppstate 07/31/2020 3:48PM
  Typically 65-85 percent iirc. ** -- hawg1 07/31/2020 3:50PM
  T-Cells. B-Cells. That's how. -- 93Buff 07/31/2020 3:33PM
  R0 is the number of cases produced by each case. -- BACKinBLACK 07/31/2020 6:43PM
  Fauci was very positive on the t-cell news -- McKelvie 07/31/2020 5:53PM
  An explanation -- BACKinBLACK 07/31/2020 6:51PM
  The highest current rt is 1.25 estimated. -- 93Buff 07/31/2020 4:06PM
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