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Joined: 9/7/04 Posts: 4770
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How do you reconcile a very low R0 while claiming such a high infection


To clarify, Remote outpost is claiming the IFR is 0.005 with 150,000+ deaths. That would mean approximately 30,000,000 infections in the US resolved. An R0 of 1.25 would mean that for every 4 cases in this generation of virus, 5 new cases will be in the next “generation”. With that slow a rate of spread how do you get to 30,000,000 resolved cases in 6 months or less?

If number of cases are lower then we aren’t as close to herd immunity.
If R0 is higher then we have to have a high percentage for herd immunity.

You may have a perfectly logical explanation. I’m willing to be enlightened.

[Post edited by BACKinBLACK at 07/31/2020 6:57PM]

(In response to this post by 93Buff)

Posted: 07/31/2020 at 6:04PM


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Current Thread:
Memo to Dr Fauci…....don’t be afraid to question your dogma -- A Remote Outpost 07/31/2020 2:07PM
  Serology of 25% in mid May. -- BACKinBLACK 07/31/2020 6:47PM
  *** -- Gateway 07/31/2020 2:23PM
  If a portion of the population has preexisting immunity... -- Banned-for-life 08/01/2020 8:03PM
  Haw a question. When an epidemic or pandemic -- Uppstate 07/31/2020 3:48PM
  Typically 65-85 percent iirc. ** -- hawg1 07/31/2020 3:50PM
  T-Cells. B-Cells. That's how. -- 93Buff 07/31/2020 3:33PM
  R0 is the number of cases produced by each case. -- BACKinBLACK 07/31/2020 6:43PM
  Fauci was very positive on the t-cell news -- McKelvie 07/31/2020 5:53PM
  An explanation -- BACKinBLACK 07/31/2020 6:51PM
  The highest current rt is 1.25 estimated. -- 93Buff 07/31/2020 4:06PM