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Joined: 8/15/14 Posts: 1221
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This from an interview from 5 days ago.

Everything below this paragraph is quoted from his interview. He suggests 800k deaths before this is over ... roughly 12x to 30x this years flu deaths of 24k to 62k.or 10x your 2019 numbers (CDC flu deaths estimate2019 - 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

"There are 320 million people in the United States. If half of them get infected in the next 6 to 18 months, that's 160 million people. The 50% rate of infection over the course of the pandemic is at the low end of my colleagues' consensus on what we can expect to see given the infectiousness of this virus.

Based on what we know from Asia, from the European Union and from the United States, about 80% of these cases will have asymptomatic, mild or moderate illness but won't need professional medical care. About 20% of infected people will seek medical care. That's 32 million people.

Of those, about half will be hospitalized. That's 16 million people. Of those who are hospitalized, about half will actually require some form of critical care. That's 8 million people. About 0.5 to 1% of the total number of 160 million infected people will die. So you have the possibility of at least 800,000 deaths in the US over the next 18 months. This is the number of deaths I'm expecting.

If you don't like the numbers I just used, go ahead and change them however you want. Just provide your justification. We have a long way to go with this pandemic. We just need to make people understand that this is going to be bad until we get a safe, effective and widely available vaccine. It's a sad commentary about our state of affairs that the number of people who die from Covid-19 in the US ranks as one of the top daily causes of death -- on some days it's been ranked higher than heart disease, cancer and accidents. Six weeks ago, it wasn't even in the top 60 causes of deaths. "

(In response to this post by Visionary Buff)

Link: Infectious disease expert says we're only in the second inning of the pandemic

Posted: 04/27/2020 at 5:54PM


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Current Thread:
More talk of College Football being a split decision in 2020 -- Harvest House 04/26/2020 11:34PM
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  Covid-19 is just under 50k deaths in 3 months -- CUKev 04/28/2020 10:13AM
  How much was flu up y/y? How about covid? ** -- 241Volcano 04/27/2020 5:55PM
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  Colorado Department of Health case data -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 11:09PM
  I reject your false premise -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 10:58PM
  Lecture much? -- Visionary Buff 04/28/2020 11:24AM
  This from an interview from 5 days ago. -- HallelujahBuff 04/27/2020 5:54PM
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  *** -- Flatirons 04/27/2020 1:44PM
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  That is far from a sure thing at Purdue -- BuffsIn2020 04/27/2020 10:56AM
  And here's the link -- BuffsIn2020 04/27/2020 10:09AM