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HallelujahBuff

Joined: 8/15/14 Posts: 1221
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This from an interview from 5 days ago.


Everything below this paragraph is quoted from his interview. He suggests 800k deaths before this is over ... roughly 12x to 30x this years flu deaths of 24k to 62k.or 10x your 2019 numbers (CDC flu deaths estimate2019 - 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

"There are 320 million people in the United States. If half of them get infected in the next 6 to 18 months, that's 160 million people. The 50% rate of infection over the course of the pandemic is at the low end of my colleagues' consensus on what we can expect to see given the infectiousness of this virus.

Based on what we know from Asia, from the European Union and from the United States, about 80% of these cases will have asymptomatic, mild or moderate illness but won't need professional medical care. About 20% of infected people will seek medical care. That's 32 million people.

Of those, about half will be hospitalized. That's 16 million people. Of those who are hospitalized, about half will actually require some form of critical care. That's 8 million people. About 0.5 to 1% of the total number of 160 million infected people will die. So you have the possibility of at least 800,000 deaths in the US over the next 18 months. This is the number of deaths I'm expecting.

If you don't like the numbers I just used, go ahead and change them however you want. Just provide your justification. We have a long way to go with this pandemic. We just need to make people understand that this is going to be bad until we get a safe, effective and widely available vaccine. It's a sad commentary about our state of affairs that the number of people who die from Covid-19 in the US ranks as one of the top daily causes of death -- on some days it's been ranked higher than heart disease, cancer and accidents. Six weeks ago, it wasn't even in the top 60 causes of deaths. "

(In response to this post by Visionary Buff)

Link: Infectious disease expert says we're only in the second inning of the pandemic


Posted: 04/27/2020 at 5:54PM



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Current Thread:
 
  
More talk of College Football being a split decision in 2020 -- Harvest House 04/26/2020 11:34PM
  I hope we have football in 2020 but not optimistic -- HallelujahBuff 04/27/2020 4:18PM
  We had 80,000 flu deaths in 2018 -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 5:35PM
  Covid-19 is just under 50k deaths in 3 months -- CUKev 04/28/2020 10:13AM
  How much was flu up y/y? How about covid? ** -- 241Volcano 04/27/2020 5:55PM
  2019-2020 flu deaths 24,000 - 62,000 per CDC -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 6:20PM
  Yawn -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 6:35PM
  Colorado Department of Health case data -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 11:09PM
  I reject your false premise -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 10:58PM
  Lecture much? -- Visionary Buff 04/28/2020 11:24AM
  This from an interview from 5 days ago. -- HallelujahBuff 04/27/2020 5:54PM
  I tried not to make any assumptions -- HallelujahBuff 04/27/2020 5:13PM
  NFL will play for sure; college is going to be close call -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 5:06PM
  Could not agree more -- eastside Buff 04/27/2020 3:45PM
  Yep there’s pushback to online -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 3:48PM
  I'd take my chances in a stadium over a dorm ** -- JeffCoBuff 04/27/2020 1:36PM
  A great point Go2 - should be individual choice -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 2:55PM
  Individuals contract, pass, and overflow hospitals. ** -- 241Volcano 04/27/2020 3:37PM
  Except hospitals aren’t overflowing -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 3:50PM
  Brother never unemployed -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 4:49PM
  Good point ** -- JeffCoBuff 04/27/2020 1:43PM
  Purdue is reopening in the fall -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 10:50AM
  Can they carry it and expose -- Irish Buff 04/27/2020 2:11PM
  Yes - just as they could if they were at home -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 3:25PM
  My youngest is college frosh this year -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 3:36PM
  She plays softball -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 4:59PM
  Good move. ** -- hawg1 04/27/2020 3:42PM
  Yep - look past the false dichotomy -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 1:37PM
  The models were spectacularly wrong? -- Flatirons 04/27/2020 2:18PM
  Yes - Ferguson model -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 2:59PM
  Imperial College model assumed no mitigations ** -- Flatirons 04/27/2020 3:21PM
  Like shooting fish in a barrel. ** -- hawg1 04/27/2020 3:37PM
  Yes - sure it is wrong -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 3:16PM
  I agree facts matter -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 3:43PM
  *** -- Flatirons 04/27/2020 1:44PM
  You’re revising history -- Visionary Buff 04/27/2020 3:12PM
  Boiler Up! -- HallelujahBuff 04/27/2020 11:48AM
  That is far from a sure thing at Purdue -- BuffsIn2020 04/27/2020 10:56AM
  And here's the link -- BuffsIn2020 04/27/2020 10:09AM
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