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Buffalo Bob

Joined: 7/22/14 Posts: 14229
Likes: 3799


Understood. Just giving reason for hope. All viruses are novel at first..


When H1N1 was projected we had no idea what the total death rates would be. It was a novel flu virus at the time, yet we didn't take these precautions. 1 in 5 people were infected. Imagine how much higher the death rate would have looked if we didn't know the total number of infected persons? Millions were infected and hundreds of thousands died.

I am not at all excited about a vaccine for this. In a good year - a very good year, the efficacy rate of the flu vaccine is 60% - and far lower in the people who really need it - the elderly. Even that is probably way over-stated due to the shear # of unreported cases of vaccinated people who don't report their illness because they don't get tested. Getting a match for the specific strain is like finding a needle in a hay-stack. As covid mutates, hopefully it is not as bad next year, and we will be a little less frightened about controlling it without having to close down school and other public institutions.

(In response to this post by BACKinBLACK)

Posted: 03/18/2020 at 11:25AM



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Current Thread:
 
  
I found the "scary" guy I've been talking about... -- Gateway 03/17/2020 10:47PM
  Here is a scary headline nobody talked about -- Buffalo Bob 03/18/2020 10:10AM
  Influenza is definitely a problem. -- BACKinBLACK 03/18/2020 10:32AM
  A 60% effective vaccine -- BACKinBLACK 03/18/2020 12:28PM
  Not exactly -- Buffalo Bob 03/18/2020 12:36PM
  Listen to him on Joe Rogan podcast -- WastingTime 03/17/2020 11:05PM
  I’ll check it out -- WastingTime 03/17/2020 11:21PM
  Re: I’ll check it out -- Gateway 03/17/2020 11:53PM
  I’m the same -- WastingTime 03/18/2020 12:19AM
  If the airlines want my sympathy -- WastingTime 03/18/2020 01:28AM
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